Executive Summary

The aggregates sector is an important part of the economy providing necessary materials for the construction and development of our built environment. But, like any industry, the sector is not without its impacts, and the way we produce and consume aggregates must be looked at within the context of securing a healthy environment in which we and future generations can prosper.

Set against this backdrop, this report provides a horizon scan for aggregates production in 2030 and 2050 in England. The study has been completed for those who shape the industry and its interaction with the environment, including the industry itself, policymakers and planners in National and Local Government and the third sector.

Using a body of collected evidence and research, it has examined plausible future scenarios and
extrapolated trends and explored implications. Conclusions were then made on the key trends and
recommendations made for Government and the Industry. These are replicated below.

Conclusions:

Economy

1.  Historic data clearly shows a link between aggregate demand and economic growth.
2.  However, despite the year on year increase for aggregate as GDP and construction output have grown, there is evidence to suggest a break in the direct correlation between these economic indicators and aggregates demand.

Policy, planning and regulation

3.  The planning process has encouraged a long term approach to aggregate provision, leading to England having a relatively fixed, declining trajectory for aggregate supply over the next 15+ years. This means it will take a big shift in government policy and industry response to adjust supply patterns.
4.  Multiple stakeholders stressed the importance of a managed aggregate supply system. Concern existed across the spectrum of participants that if decision making were entirely delegated to regional or local level, aggregate supply would be difficult to coordinate to meet national demand.

Environment, energy and climate change

5.  Environmental constraints of aggregate extraction are complex and need to be managed in a planning process that addresses this complexity.
6.  Over the horizon scanning period Government policy will increasingly develop a strong focus towards establishing a low carbon economy.

Transport

7.  Low value aggregate struggles to secure rail track slots against passenger demand and higher value freight.
8.  Importing substantial proportions of aggregate is not physically possible without significant additions to port capacity which even in the long term is unlikely to prove economically viable.
9.  Government policy for the future use of rail, inland water ways and marine infrastructure for aggregate transportation is not clear.
10.  Highways authorities and the supply industry do not fully understand the potential impacts of future European regulation changes to increase vehicle loads and axle weights of haulage vehicles and the impact this will have on the road network causing damage, nuisance and environment impact.

Resources and waste

11.  There remains potential for design and construction practitioners and the industry to use secondary and recycled materials in higher value applications.
12.  The landfill tax has brought about significant reduction in amount of materials sent to landfill and this reduces material availability for quarry restoration.
13.  Neither the Industry nor Government appear to have a clear common strategy around water management and aggregate workings.
14. Aggregate reserves are declining in the short to middle term.

Social

15.  The sector should expect to operate under increasing public scrutiny going forward, particularly in the areas where it is responsible for social impacts.
16.  England’s changing demographics will affect the industry’s ability to recruit and retain appropriately skilled workers.
17.  Population forecasts for England show growth over the horizon scan period. This will impact both by driving demand for aggregates, but also increasing competition for land access.

Recommendations:

Government

1.  Streamline legislation and regulation, including environmental regulation, to be managed by a single body, bringing central and local Government participants closer together.
2.  Continue to consider aggregate resources and reserves using the managed aggregate supply system from a national level down. Use available published research and implement improvements within the system where they are known to exist.
3.  Develop a strong policy on access to reserves to secure supply and safeguard recognised reserves for the middle and long term; and implement at regional and local level.
4.  With Industry, develop a strategy for water management and aggregate workings.
5.  Support the aggregates Industry in meeting environmental and social challenges through better targeted investment of the funds generated by the aggregates levy.
6.  With the aggregate Industry, ensure that waste and landfill regulation does not impact unduly on the availability of materials for restoration of aggregate workings.
7.  Consider national regulation of the aggregates Industry, in a similar fashion to utilities, to deliver further efficiencies and meet long term objectives.
8.  Provide a policy steer and investment in rail, inland water ways and marine transport infrastructure.
9.  Improve the planning process to address in a more cohesive manner, the complexity of environmental impacts for which aggregate extraction is responsible.
10.  Resilience planning will be necessary by Government and Industry on aspects such as energy security, climate change adaptation and managing associated risks such as flooding.

Aggregate industry

11. Undertake resilience planning, with Government, on aspects such as energy security, climate change adaptation and managing associated risks, such as flooding.
12.  Continue to invest in energy efficiency measures, different fuel sources and alternative transport modes.
13.  The aggregates industry, as an important and integrate part of the concrete products sector, must develop construction product solutions that provide low embodied carbon building systems, that also provide buildings and infrastructure with low operational carbon performance.
14. Use land banks for the development of renewable energy capacity. Lobby Government for a hybrid planning process that encourages this outcome.
15.  In the short term develop low carbon road haulage solutions. These should be delivered in parallel with improving vehicle performance on capacity, noise, dust, emissions and safety.
16.  Work with highways authorities to review and manage the implications of future European regulation changes that are expected to allow increase vehicle loads and axle weights on the road network to mitigate nuisance, damage and environmental impacts.
17.  In response to increasing public scrutiny, the industry should maintain its investment in education and raising awareness to promote the importance of aggregates to society.
18.  Product labelling, industry wide responsible sourcing, and sector targets should be established as the norm. Mechanisms must be put into place to encourage SMEs and smaller operators to participate.
19.  Develop clearer career development paths, including courses for employment and apprenticeships to support recruitment and attract skills for an improved sector resource base.
20.  The industry must make its own investments to integrate its quarries and extraction points and distribution centres with rail, inland water and marine infrastructure.

Construction industry and research community

21.  Through research and development, in collaboration with the aggregate industry, create construction solutions which support the establishment of a low carbon economy within a life cycle context addressing extraction and manufacture, product in use performance, and end of life.
22.  In collaboration with the aggregate industry and research community, develop consistent and agreed protocols / standards for product and supply chain evaluation against aspects such as responsible sourcing, embodied impact and carbon. These must be life cycle based and appropriate for comparative assertion between different material and design solutions and for different built assets.
23.  Design and construction practitioners, in collaboration with the aggregates industry, must continue to promote specifications to further encourage the use of secondary and recycled materials.
24.  Clients, architects, designers and constructors should reduce environmental impacts through better specification. If this does not occur then codes of practice and Building Regulations should be used to drive change.